The new biographical film Michael, centered on the life of Michael Jackson, is projected to deliver one of the strongest opening weeks ever for a musical biopic, according to early estimates released by distributor Lionsgate.
The studio reports that the film is on track to generate between $90 million and $100 million domestically during its first week in theaters. That total includes approximately $12 million from early preview screenings held before the official opening, as well as an estimated $39.5 million earned on its first full day of release.
If those projections hold, the film is expected to surpass Straight Outta Compton for the largest opening weekend gross ever recorded by a musical biopic in the United States. The strong initial performance reflects significant audience turnout despite the public debate surrounding the film’s portrayal of Jackson’s life.
In a statement, Lionsgate Motion Picture Group chair Adam Fogelson attributed the early success to a combination of factors, including the film’s production team and cast. The project was produced by Graham King and directed by Antoine Fuqua, with a lead performance from Jaafar Jackson. Fogelson also cited the involvement of Universal Pictures as a key partner, along with the support of the Michael Jackson estate.
Beyond domestic earnings, the film is also performing strongly in international markets. Global projections suggest that Michael could reach approximately $200 million in box office revenue during its opening weekend worldwide. That figure would immediately place the film among the top five highest-grossing musical biopics of all time.
Industry tracking indicates that the film may soon surpass the lifetime global totals of Straight Outta Compton and Elvis, which currently rank among the top earners in the genre. However, the film still faces a significant gap if it is to overtake Bohemian Rhapsody, which remains the highest-grossing musical biopic in history with a worldwide total of approximately $910 million and earned Rami Malek an Academy Award for Best Actor.
The film’s commercial momentum comes amid ongoing criticism related to its treatment of allegations that emerged during Jackson’s lifetime. Dan Reed, who directed the documentary Leaving Neverland, has publicly questioned the film’s narrative choices. In comments given around the film’s release, Reed argued that younger audiences may come away with an incomplete understanding of Jackson’s life, particularly regarding the accusations that have been the subject of extensive public discussion and legal disputes.
Reed also suggested that the film’s reception reflects the enduring cultural influence of Jackson’s legacy, as well as the power of major studio backing and estate involvement in shaping public narratives. His remarks highlight a broader tension between commercial success and the complexities of portraying controversial figures in mainstream cinema.
Despite these debates, early audience turnout indicates sustained interest in Jackson’s story, particularly among younger viewers who may be encountering his music and career for the first time through the film. Analysts note that the combination of a globally recognized subject, a major studio release, and a wide theatrical rollout has positioned Michael for strong box office performance in the weeks ahead.
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